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A Thucydidean Island in a Crowded Ocean: Sri Lankan Power Asymmetry & Fear in the Indian Ocean

By Sannasa Research Collective
Published 20 February 2026

Publication

A Thucydidean Island in a Crowded Ocean: Sri Lankan Power Asymmetry & Fear in the Indian Ocean

Sannasa Research Collective

Sannasa Historical Research Collective

20 February 2026

This publication applies the classical Thucydidean framework to analyze Sri Lanka’s strategic position in the contemporary Indian Ocean. By examining the dynamics of power asymmetry and state fear, the research provides a nuanced understanding of how small island states navigate great power competition.

Drawing on classical realist theory and historical case studies, the paper explores how Sri Lanka balances competing geopolitical pressures from regional hegemonies and extra-regional powers while seeking to maintain its strategic autonomy in an increasingly militarized maritime domain.

Key analytical themes:

  • The enduring relevance of Thucydidean concepts (fear, honor, and interest) in modern geopolitics
  • Strategies of asymmetric balancing employed by small island states
  • Sri Lanka’s role as a strategic pivot in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR)